2012 ATS Record: 133-127-7
2012 Picks Record: 166-101-1
2012 O/U Record: 148-114-5

Sunday, February 4^th – Super Bowl XLVII

San Francisco 49ers v. Baltimore Ravens
Line: 49ers -3.5
Total: 47
My Pick: 49ers -3.5. San Francisco wins 23-17 (under)
Result: Ravens 34-31 (over)
I had a little too much faith in the 49ers’ defense, which apparently chose not to show up until the second half. My overall season picks weren’t bad. I beat Vegas by 6 on ATS picks and was well over .500 on my over/unders again. All in all it was a fun season ending in an excellent Super Bowl. Now the misery sets in. What do we do with our Sundays from now until August? My answer is golf. Hopefully it stops snowing soon… 

Sunday, February 4^th

San Francisco 49ers v. Baltimore Ravens
Line: 49ers -3.5
Total: 47
Game can be heard on 1160 ESPN – Sunday at 4pm
The Ravens started the year as a Super Bowl contender but struggled midway through the year due to inconsistency. Cam Cameron’s firing and Ray Lewis’ triumphant return have sparked Baltimore’s resurgence over the past few weeks. My favorite Ravens stat? Ray Lewis’ first career sack was against then-Colts QB Jim Harbaugh – now the 49ers head coach. My second favorite Ravens stat? Lewis’ 44 playoff tackles are 18 more than 2^nd place (26). Clearly he is in full beast mode. The 49ers have impressed during the postseason as well, running over the Packers and mounting a big comeback to beat the Falcons in Atlanta. Kaepernick looks confident and the 49ers defense continues to prove itself as one of the league’s best. As long as San Fran is ready to play and doesn’t get distracted by all the fanfare surrounding Super Bowl week, I expect them to dispatch with the Ravens and win the Lombardi trophy.
Trends: The Ravens have won 3 straight against the 49ers and are 2-1 ATS in those games. Baltimore has also played 4 of 5 Under. San Fran has played Over in 5 straight.
My Pick: 49ers -3.5. San Francisco wins 23-17 (under)

2012 ATS Record: 133-126-7
Championship Weekend ATS: 2-0
2012 Picks Record: 166-100-1
Championship Weekend Picks: 1-1
2012 O/U Record: 148-113-5
Championship Weekend O/U: 2-0

Sunday, January 20^th

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: 49ers -3.5
Total: 49
My Pick: 49ers -3.5. San Francisco wins 33-24 (over)
Result: 49ers 28-24 (over)
San Francisco has rightfully taken its place as the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl. It’s been a long time since the 49ers were Super Bowl caliber (Think Montana and Young), and it’s nice to see them on top once again.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -9
Total: 51.5
My Pick: Ravens +9. New England wins 27-23 (under)
Result: Ravens 28-13 (under)
The Ravens deserved redemption after years of playoff futility against the mighty Patriots. I just wish I’d had the stones to pick Baltimore to win outright! I had a gut feeling they’d find a way to win this year but I didn’t trust my own instincts. At first glance, my preseason Super Bowl prediction (Patriots over Packers) looks pretty far off. I did, however, predict Pats over RAVENS and Packers over 49ERS, so I had the two eventual Super Bowl contenders in their respective league championship games (and 3 of 4 overall). Looking at the numbers, this ended up being a pretty solid season. 

Sunday, January 20^th

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: 49ers -3.5
Total: 49
Game can be heard on 1160 ESPN – Sunday at 2pm
I will not underestimate the 49ers again. They’ve had some questionable losses (and a tie), but after their performance last week against the Packers they are clearly ready for a Super Bowl run. Atlanta barely beat the Seahawks, proving that they’re as susceptible as everyone expected they would be. I wary of the Falcons and confident in the 49ers – two good reasons to think that San Fran will be playing on February 4^th!
Trends: San Fran has only won 1 of its last 5 against Atlanta and has played 5 straight Overs. The Falcons are 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 games and have played 6 of 8 Under.  
My Pick: 49ers -3.5. San Francisco wins 33-24 (over)

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -9
Total: 51.5
Game can be heard on 1160 ESPN – Sunday at 6:30pm
New England is good, but they’re not unbeatable. The Pats have played an inconsistent season that included losses to the Cardinals, 49ers, Ravens, and Seahawks and marginal wins against Jacksonville, the Jets, and Buffalo. Baltimore is playing well and will be fired up to prove that a second-straight 9-point spread against them is wholly unjustified. It would also be sweet, poetic revenge if the Ravens could atone for previous failures in New England by going through the Pats to deliver Ray Lewis a Super Bowl appearance in his final season. All of this said, I think the Ravens will keep it close but will ultimately be unable to pull out a win against a Patriots team that is very good at home – especially in the playoffs.
Trends: The Pats are 8-2 SU and 5-3-2 ATS in their last 10 against Baltimore. The Ravens have won 4 of 6 road games and have played 4 of 6 road games Under. The Pats have won 7 of 8 home games and have played 7 of 8 home games Over.
My Pick: Ravens +9. New England wins 27-23 (under)

2012 ATS Record: 131-126-7
Divisional Weekend ATS: 2-2
2012 Picks Record: 165-99-1
Divisional Weekend Picks: 2-2
2012 O/U Record: 146-113-5
Divisional Weekend O/U: 2-2

Saturday, January 12^th

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -9
Total: 46
My Pick: Ravens +9. Denver wins 31-27 (over)
Result: Ravens 38-35 (2ot)(over)
I had a feeling the Ravens would be in the game, but I never expected them to win! Now they get New England in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game. It’s amazing that the NFL can have a season full of parody and yet the end result is the same two teams battling for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -3
Total: 44.5
My Pick: Packers +3. Green Bay wins 23-17 (under)
Result: 49ers 45-31 (over)
All season long I’ve felt that the 49ers were the best team in the NFC – and possibly in the NFL. That said, some late-season hiccups and the replacement of Alex Smith at QB had me worried for the postseason, so I jumped off the bandwagon as if it were aflame. Apparently I jumped too soon. All of a sudden San Fran is my Super Bowl favorite. 

Sunday, January 13^th

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -2.5
Total: 46
My Pick: Falcons -2.5. Atlanta wins 23-13 (under)
Result: Falcons 30-28 (over)
Atlanta was barely able to pull this one out, so you have to credit the Seahawks on fighting hard throughout the season despite low expectations. Dear Seattle: This is what you get for your garbage last-second touchdown against the Packers #Karma.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -9
Total: 47.5
My Pick: Patriots -9. New England wins 33-21 (over)
Result: Patriots 41-28 (over)
Most people expected a Patriots blowout. New England delivered. There’s not much more to say. Baltimore better be ready to play on Sunday. 

Saturday, January 12^th

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -9
Total: 46
Game can be heard on 1160 ESPN – Saturday at 4pm
Denver beat the Ravens by 17 points IN BALTIMORE in week 15. Which is why I expect this game to be very close. Yes, that’s right – I said close. The Ravens play with more pride than most other teams in the NFL. They’ve also experienced historical success in “revenge” games. After an embarrassing showing in week 15, I expect them to be on their game and to give Denver all they can handle.  
Trends: Baltimore is 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against Denver. The Ravens are 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Denver has won 11 in a row and has played 16 of 23 Over at home.
My Pick: Ravens +9. Denver wins 31-27 (over)

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -3
Total: 44.5
Game can be heard on 1160 ESPN – Saturday at 8pm
This is going to be an incredible game. After an up-and-down season, it’s time for Green Bay to find some consistency. With Aaron Rodgers under center and the majority of their injuries cleared up, the Packers could make a Super Bowl run. The 49ers didn’t finish the season as well as they could have, but they’re still a force to be reckoned with defensively. I’m a little concerned about Kaepernick, however, and feel Alex Smith would be a better choice as San Fran’s playoff starter. The postseason is a different beast, and it make take a rookie quarterback a couple of quarters to adjust to the intensity. Another concern is that after a bye week you wonder if a team will be “rested” or “rusty”. I worry that San Fran will be the latter. 
Trends: Green Bay is 8-2 SU and 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games against San Fran and have played 6 of 8 Under. San Fran is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games and have played 7 of 8 Over.
My Pick: Packers +3. Green Bay wins 23-17 (under)

Sunday, January 13^th

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -2.5
Total: 46
Game can be heard on 1160 ESPN – Sunday at 12:30pm
Atlanta is one of the weaker #1 seeds I can remember – but they got a favorable draw thanks to Seattle’s win over the Redskins. With a healthy RG3, the Skins may have been the league’s most dangerous team, and certainly one that could have given Atlanta trouble. Washington had the NFC’s fewest giveaways in 2012, which would have spelled trouble for an Atlanta defense that relied heavily on turnovers and was ranked 24^th in the NFL in yards allowed. Seattle is also stingy with the ball, but I don’t trust Russell Wilson’s decision making for a full game. He’ll be solid, but Atlanta’s defensive style will help them capitalize on the one or two bad decisions Wilson makes - which will likely prove the difference in the game. Either that, or Matty Ice will carve up the Seahawks all day long and the Falcons will win easily. Or, of course, Wilson could make no mistakes and the Seahawks could win. But that outcome is far less likely than the first two. Seattle is far better at home than on the road, and the only playoff team they beat on the road all season was Washington.
Trends: Seattle has only won 7 of its last 21 road games and has played 4 of 5 Over on the road. Atlanta has won 11 of 12 home games and has played 5 straight home Unders. 
My Pick: Falcons -2.5. Atlanta wins 23-13 (under)

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -9
Total: 47.5
Game can be heard on 1160 ESPN – Sunday at 4pm
I would normally hesitate before spotting a team 9 points in a playoff game, but Houston hasn’t played well during the second half of the season. Aside from decent wins in weeks 13 and 15 over Tennessee and Indy, the Texans went to overtime with the lowly Lions and Jaguars, lost in embarrassing fashion to the Pats, failed to score a touchdown against the Vikings, and lost their finale to the Colts with a playoff “bye” on the line. Their win over the Bengals last week was hardly convincing, and I don’t think they can compete with Brady and Belichick in a playoff-atmosphere game in Foxboro.
Trends: New England is 3-1 SU and ATS in four games against the Texans. Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 road games and has played 5 of 6 Under. New England has won 6 of 7 at home and has played 6 of 7 at home Over.
My Pick: Patriots -9. New England wins 33-21 (over)